Machine-translated from Japanese. Please refer to the original for technical details.
Last Updated: November 7, 2026
[Updated November 7, 2026] Will the NAND Shortage Last Until 2030?—Kearney’s New Forecast and Its Impact on Procurement
On November 6, 2026, A.T. Kearney published a report titled “The Worsening Storage Shortage,” analyzing supply constraints for NAND flash.The supply tightness projected through 2030 is based on a forecast derived from Kearney PERLab’s standard scenario, rather than on confirmed supply stoppages or delivery delays by manufacturers. The analysis focuses specifically on enterprise-grade QLC and TLC NAND and advanced stacking generations; it does not imply that consumer SSDs or all NAND part numbers will be out of stock through 2030.
Newly Presented Market Forecasts (Distinguish from Facts)
- Enterprise-grade QLC and TLC: Kearney’s standard scenario suggests that supply constraints in these segments could persist through 2030.
- Demand and Supply for 2026–2029: NAND wafer demand is estimated to grow at an average annual rate of 8–12%, while supply is projected to increase by 2–4%. These are projections based on the company’s model and do not represent manufacturers’ confirmed production volumes.
- Industrial and Automotive Applications: The firm notes that lead times for high-reliability TLC and pSLC can exceed 20 weeks in some cases. This does not represent a standard lead time across all products or manufacturers.
- Factors Affecting Supply Easing: The supply-demand outlook may change due to increased production by Chinese manufacturers, a recovery in nearline HDD supply, and advances in NAND manufacturing technology. On the other hand, the adoption of HBF (High-Bandwidth Flash) could drive additional demand.
Discrepancies in Outlook: Comparison with TrendForce
According to the outlook presented by TrendForce on July 30, 2026, the overall NAND market may see supply ease in the second half of 2027. Kearney’s analysis dated November 6 presents a long-term supply shortage scenario focused specifically on enterprise-grade QLC and TLC products, as well as advanced multi-layer variants.Since the two analyses differ in their target markets, demand assumptions, and projected production capacity increases, one should not make a blanket judgment that “all NAND will be in short supply until 2030.” The relative merits and feasibility of the two companies’ forecasts have not yet been determined.
What Domestic Purchasing, Materials, and SCM Personnel Should Verify
- Verify the complete model numbers (MPNs), capacities, TLC/QLC/pSLC classifications, and whether industrial or automotive certifications are in place for all NAND, SSDs, eMMCs, and UFS currently in use, on a BOM basis.
- Organize required quantities not only for the next 3 to 6 months but also through mass production schedules starting in 2027, and inquire with manufacturers and authorized distributors regarding available quantities and actual delivery dates.
- For alternative options, verify write endurance, data retention, temperature conditions, controller/firmware compatibility, and the need for customer approval.
- For overseas procurement, verify the procurement channels, lots, traceability, and quality assurance to avoid excess inventory based solely on long-term market forecasts.
Practical Comments from AI Components
Rather than deciding to make large, advance purchases based solely on multi-year market forecasts, please first prioritize securing part numbers where the loss from production discontinuation would be significant and where obtaining alternative certification would be difficult. At AIC, we provide case-by-case support—primarily through authorized distributor channels—to evaluate overseas sourcing candidates and alternatives as needed. We cannot guarantee specific inventory levels, prices, delivery dates, or allocations at this time.
Information required for procurement consultations: Manufacturer name, full part number, quantity, desired delivery date, target price, and whether a replacement is possible (along with any required durability or certification conditions). Please provide this information when contacting AI Components.
Primary Sources and Reference Materials
Due to expanding storage demand for AI servers and AI agents, the procurement landscape for Enterprise SSDs (eSSDs) and NAND Flash has entered a critical phase requiring close monitoring.On October 5, 2026, TrendForce reported that DRAM lead times had reached 20 weeks (compared to the typical 8-week benchmark under balanced supply and demand conditions), noting that the DRAM shortage is also impacting the Enterprise SSD supply capacity of some NAND suppliers.Long lead times of around 16 weeks have long been observed for eSSDs themselves, and the market outlook released on September 24 predicts that contract prices for Enterprise SSDs in the fourth quarter of 2026 will rise by 23–28% quarter-over-quarter, while prices for NAND Flash overall are expected to increase by 15–20%.These are market research-based lead time and price forecasts and do not imply confirmed price increases or delivery times for all manufacturers or all model numbers. Actual inventory, prices, and delivery times must be confirmed on a model-by-model basis.
Updated October 5, 2026: DRAM Shortages Are Spilling Over into Enterprise SSD Supply
TrendForce’s October 5 edition of Supply Chain Radar reports that the DRAM market is rated “Very Tight” at a 20-week level, and that the DRAM shortage is making it difficult for some NAND suppliers to adequately supply enterprise SSD solutions.This indicates that we have entered a phase where SSD procurement cannot be determined solely based on the supply and demand of NAND flash.
The report also notes that HDD lead times are at the 50-week level, and relief is not expected before the second half of 2027. Consequently, in AI and server projects, it may not be feasible to simply switch to HDDs as a substitute when SSDs are in short supply.It is important to verify supply across SSDs, NAND, DRAM, and HDDs based on specific application, capacity, and performance requirements.
Note: The figures of 20 weeks and 50 weeks are based on TrendForce’s market research and do not represent confirmed delivery times for individual manufacturers or all model numbers. Actual delivery times vary depending on the specific model number, capacity, form factor, customer qualification, and contract terms.
Updated October 2, 2026: Micron’s Enterprise SSD Shipments and NAND Supply and Demand
In its Fiscal Q4 2026 earnings report dated September 30, 2026, Micron stated that data center SSD revenue reached approximately $10 billion for the quarter—more than ten times the figure for the same period last year—and accounted for over two-thirds of the company’s NAND revenue.
The Micron 7600 PCIe Gen5 SSD and Micron 9650 PCIe Gen6 SSD are currently shipping to major customers for KV-cache applications, and mass production shipments of the Micron 6600 ION SSD are also expanding in the fourth quarter.
Micron forecasts that the NAND industry will continue to face supply constraints in 2027 and 2028.NAND prices in Fiscal Q4 2026 rose by approximately 30% compared to the previous quarter; however, this reflects Micron’s performance and does not apply uniformly to all manufacturers or all models.
Items for Purchasing Managers to Verify
- Exact part number, capacity, form factor, quantity, and desired delivery date
- PCIe generation, TLC/QLC, DWPD, security specifications, substitution feasibility
- Supply allocation, secured quantity, quote validity period, NCNR terms
- For overseas inventory: Date Code, Lot, Traceability, Storage Conditions
Practical Comments from AI Components
The strong demand for enterprise SSDs for AI is reflected in Micron’s actual sales composition and shipped products. However, since we have not been able to confirm the inventory, prices, or delivery times for specific products, we cannot make definitive statements. When procuring, we recommend confirming each item individually by providing the part number, quantity, desired delivery date, target price, and whether substitutes are acceptable.
Confirmed Facts
According to TrendForce’s Supply Chain Radar as of September 21, 2026, amid insufficient overall NAND supply, manufacturers are reallocating supply toward Enterprise SSDs, and eSSD lead times are reported to be around 16 weeks.
According to the September 23 NAND Flash market update, a structural supply shortage has emerged for high-performance enterprise SSDs due to additional orders from North American cloud service providers driven by AGI and Agent AI applications.Suppliers are prioritizing capacity for high-margin enterprise SSDs, and with limited room for short-term production increases, NAND manufacturers’ bargaining power is strengthening, maintaining upward pressure on contract prices.On the other hand, demand for client PCs, smartphones, and retail products remains weak, and the spot market does not exhibit a uniform shortage. In other words, the current NAND market is not characterized by a “universal shortage across all products”; rather, supply and demand are sharply polarized, centered on high-capacity products for AI and data centers.
On the supply side, the prioritization of AI-focused products is also clear. Samsung Electronics has begun mass production of the “PM1763,” a PCIe 6.0-compatible enterprise SSD, with AI and HPC servers as its primary applications.Micron is shipping the 245TB “6600 ION” data center SSD, which is designed for AI, cloud, and hyperscale applications.Kioxia has also identified the AI inference market as a growth area and has announced plans to expand investment in enterprise SSDs and high-capacity QLC products, as well as to pursue multi-year long-term sales contracts.
However, based solely on these announcements, it cannot be conclusively determined that there is a blanket shortage of specific SSDs or NAND part numbers in Japan, nor that prices will inevitably rise. Supply conditions vary depending on product generation, capacity, form factor, TLC/QLC, and customer qualification status.
Update on September 27: On September 21, TrendForce reported that major U.S. cloud service providers have raised their demand forecasts for enterprise SSDs over the past two weeks, and that total eSSD order volume for the fourth quarter of 2026 may exceed the high levels seen in the third quarter.The increase in demand extends not only to high-performance TLC but also to QLC, which prioritizes high capacity and cost efficiency.Furthermore, in its “4Q26 Memory Price Forecast” released on September 24, TrendForce noted that hyperscalers are increasing their procurement of QLC enterprise SSDs driven by their use in Agentic AI KV caches. As a result, contract prices for enterprise SSDs in the fourth quarter of 2026 are projected to rise by 23–28% quarter-over-quarter,while NAND Flash prices overall are projected to rise by 15–20 percent.These price increases are market forecasts and do not represent uniform price adjustments across all products from individual manufacturers. Additionally, according to market reports on September 25 citing a September 21 outlook from Citi Research, Enterprise SSD demand in 2027 is expected to increase by 52.9% year-over-year,and that the NAND supply-demand gap would widen from -0.8% in 2026 to -6.1% in 2027. These are all market forecasts and do not represent manufacturers’ finalized supply plans or delivery schedules for specific models in Japan.
Impact on Procurement
Confirmed Impact: Demand for high-capacity SSDs for AI data centers is strong, and NAND manufacturers are shifting their product mix toward enterprise SSDs. As a result, for server SSDs, securing delivery dates has become just as important as price.
Future Outlook: If the priority on supplying enterprise SSDs continues, supply capacity for certain capacities and generations of client SSDs, embedded applications, and NAND for industrial equipment may also shrink. However, at this time, we have not confirmed any primary information indicating that lead times for all NAND products will lengthen.
Particularly for high-capacity products, specific form factors, and products from a single designated manufacturer, design changes and certification can take time; therefore, searching for alternatives only after supply becomes tight could impact mass production plans.
Actions Procurement Personnel Should Take
- Extract key MPNs—such as Enterprise SSDs, NAND Flash, eMMC, and UFS—from the BOM and confirm the required quantities for the next 3 to 6 months.
- Confirm with suppliers not only the “response lead time” but also the quantity already secured, the manufacturer’s order status, cancellation terms, and price validity periods.
- For high-capacity eSSDs and server applications, determine the feasibility of substitution by evaluating capacity, PCIe generation, form factor, DWPD, TLC/QLC, and security specifications.
- When using overseas inventory, verify the manufacturing lot, traceability, storage conditions, warranty terms, and the ability to verify authenticity.
- For AI and server projects that use DRAM and HBM simultaneously, manage SSDs and NAND under the same procurement plan as memory.
Practical Comments from AI Components
The key point here is not that “all SSDs are in short supply,” but rather that NAND manufacturers’ supply priorities are shifting due to expanding demand for AI storage. While a 16-week lead time identified in market research is a level that warrants caution, purchasing decisions must always be based on the exact part number and required quantity.
In particular, for projects relying on a single source for Enterprise SSDs or NAND—which are essential for continuing mass production—it is more effective in practice to evaluate second sources and confirm overseas procurement routes before supply allocations or extended lead times become apparent, rather than waiting until prices rise.For information on DRAM and HBM supply trends, please also refer to our article on DRAM and HBM supply shortages.
Procurement Consultations for Enterprise SSDs and NAND
If you need to confirm delivery times, prices, or alternative products for the procurement of Enterprise SSDs, NAND Flash, eMMC, UFS, or similar items, please contact AI Components.
Please provide us with the manufacturer name, complete model number (MPN), required quantity, desired delivery date, target price, and whether alternatives are acceptable. We will then review potential domestic and international sourcing options, overseas inventory, alternative availability, and traceability conditions on a case-by-case basis. Regarding inventory, pricing, and delivery times, we will provide only the information available at the time of your inquiry.
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